Arabic version: الاقتصاد العالمي يتغير مع تصاعد الحرب في إيران وزيادة الاستثمارات
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3 to 3.1 percent, citing the impact of the United States-Israeli war on Iran and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz on the world economy. This conflict has damaged energy infrastructure across the Gulf, while critical exports like oil, gas, chemicals, and fertiliser remain largely stranded by Iran’s shutdown of the strait and the subsequent US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
In the worst-case scenario of a prolonged war, the IMF said global growth could fall to 2.5 percent in 2026, with low-income and developing economies hit the hardest by soaring commodity and energy prices. The global shipping and logistics industry is facing a separate crisis.
Despite the dire macroeconomic outlook, some corners of the global economy are thriving on the uncertainty. Wall Street investment banks have reported substantial profits, benefiting from increased trading volumes amid market volatility. First-quarter results for 2026 showed that Morgan Stanley reported a profit of $5.57bn, up 29 percent year on year, while Goldman Sachs reported a profit of $5.63bn, up 19 percent year on year. JP Morgan Chase also reported major gains, with first-quarter earnings of $16.49bn, up 13 percent year on year.
The prediction market platform Polymarket has seen a surge in activity, reportedly earning upwards of $1 million a day since the start of the month by letting users make peer-to-peer bets on everything from sports tournaments to elections. Polymarket has been doing well since the start of the war, but it revised its fee structure on March 30 to cash in even more on its popularity.
Additionally, the aerospace and defence sectors are experiencing growth due to heightened global defence spending. The MSCI World Aerospace and Defence Index has reported net returns of 32 percent year on year, outpacing broader market indices. Both the artificial intelligence and renewable energy sectors are also demonstrating resilience, with strong export figures from semiconductor manufacturers and a renewed urgency for energy diversification highlighted by the ongoing war.
According to Al Jazeera, these industries are capitalizing on the uncertainty brought about by the conflict, showcasing the complex interplay between war and economic opportunity.
