Historian Allan Lichtman, dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections, has once again stepped into the spotlight with his latest forecast: Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s nominee, will defeat Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Lichtman, a professor of history at American University, has earned a reputation for his accurate predictions, having called every US presidential election correctly since 1984, except one. His model, which disregards traditional polling and focuses on a set of 13 “keys,” suggests that the odds favor Harris.
This election cycle, originally expected to pit incumbent President Joe Biden against Trump, took an unexpected turn when Biden withdrew from the race after a shaky debate performance in June. As a result, Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee. Lichtman’s prediction of her victory has sent ripples across the political landscape, and it’s worth examining the reasoning behind his analysis and the broader implications of his forecast.
Lichtman’s unique system for predicting election outcomes is based on 13 true-or-false statements that he refers to as the “keys to the White House.” These keys are a mix of political, economic, and social factors that, when taken together, create a formula for determining the success of an incumbent party’s bid for the presidency. According to Lichtman, if six or more of the 13 keys turn out false for the incumbent party, that party is likely to lose the election.
Some of the factors that make up the keys include the economy, social unrest, scandal, the presence of a viable third-party candidate, and foreign or military successes. Lichtman developed this model in the 1980s based on historical data stretching back to 1860, and his track record has earned him both praise and skepticism in political circles.
In the case of the 2024 election, Lichtman believes that eight of the 13 keys favor Harris and the Democrats, pointing to a potential victory for her in November. While Lichtman has been proven right more often than not, his predictions are based on long-term trends and deep analysis rather than on polls or daily political news, which can often be volatile.
Lichtman’s model highlights several advantages that Kamala Harris brings to the race. Firstly, the Biden-Harris administration has managed to avoid major scandals that could significantly damage their standing with voters. While controversies have arisen throughout Biden’s tenure, particularly related to issues like the withdrawal from Afghanistan, none have stuck to Harris in a way that could undermine her campaign.
Lichtman also points to legislative accomplishments as a positive factor for Harris. Under the Biden administration, the passage of infrastructure and climate bills has allowed the Democrats to claim tangible achievements. These policy wins, combined with what Lichtman describes as positive short- and long-term economic indicators, have helped bolster Harris’s candidacy. While inflation remains a concern for many Americans, key metrics such as job growth and unemployment rates have stabilized, presenting a generally favorable economic outlook.
Another advantage Harris holds, according to Lichtman, is the absence of a divisive primary contest. Unlike Trump, who faced opposition within his own party during the Republican primaries, Harris emerged as the clear Democratic nominee without serious intra-party conflict. Following Biden’s exit from the race, Democrats quickly rallied around her, creating a sense of unity that Lichtman argues is a positive factor.
One of the keys in Lichtman’s model is the presence of a strong third-party or independent candidate, which historically has the potential to split the vote and weaken one of the major party candidates. In the 2024 election, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. briefly posed a challenge to both parties with his independent bid. However, his withdrawal from the race has removed a potential wildcard from the equation.
Lichtman argues that the lack of a significant third-party candidate works in favor of Harris. In elections where third-party candidates have played a role-such as in 1992 when Ross Perot ran as an independent-it often disrupted the balance of the race, particularly for incumbents. Kennedy’s absence ensures that the race will primarily focus on a direct contest between the Democratic and Republican nominees, which Lichtman sees as an advantage for Harris.
While Lichtman’s prediction gives Harris the upper hand, Donald Trump remains a formidable opponent. Despite facing multiple legal battles and controversies, Trump has maintained a loyal base of supporters, and polls have consistently shown him as the leading candidate in the Republican primaries.
However, Trump’s baggage may ultimately weigh down his campaign. His ongoing legal troubles, including the criminal cases stemming from his actions after the 2020 election, could hurt his standing with swing voters. Additionally, Trump’s divisive rhetoric continues to alienate certain voter demographics, particularly suburban women and younger voters, who may play a crucial role in the outcome of the 2024 election.
Nate Silver, another prominent election forecaster, has voiced skepticism about Harris’s chances, suggesting that Trump’s path to victory remains viable. Silver argued that Trump’s appeal to key voter blocs, particularly in battleground states, could give him an edge despite national polling that shows Harris slightly ahead. Silver’s prediction highlights the uncertainty that remains in this closely watched race.
While Allan Lichtman’s track record is impressive, it is not flawless. The one election he failed to correctly predict was the contentious 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore. That election, which ultimately came down to a ruling by the Supreme Court, was marred by legal battles over the Florida recount. Lichtman maintains that Gore should have won that race based on the keys, and only the intervention of the courts resulted in Bush’s victory.
This exception underscores the potential for unforeseen factors to disrupt even the most well-constructed models. Legal challenges, unexpected events, and voter behavior that defies historical patterns all contribute to the inherent unpredictability of presidential elections.
As the 2024 election draws closer, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump promises to be one of the most closely watched contests in recent history. Allan Lichtman’s prediction of a Harris victory adds another layer of intrigue, especially given his long history of accurate forecasts. Whether his model will hold true this time remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the stakes for both candidates, and for the country, could not be higher.
