Arabic version: وكالة الطاقة الدولية تخفض توقعات الطلب على النفط في 2026 بسبب اضطراب هرمز

According to Cnbc, the International Energy Agency said world oil demand is set to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026 as the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure deepens. The forecast, issued Wednesday, is 510,000 barrels a day lower than the agency’s previous monthly prediction in July, when it expected a decline of close to 1 million barrels a day.

The IEA said high fuel prices will continue to weigh on consumption, although demand is expected to improve through the year and return to growth in the final quarter. An agreement between Washington and Tehran to reopen the vital waterway has yet to emerge, with both sides continuing to publicly issue demands. The agency said renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions are undermining efforts to boost global oil supply.

Global oil supply in July remained 6.3 million barrels a day below its year-earlier level, the IEA said. Crude prices have been volatile: Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel last month and also fell near $70 a barrel. It was last trading at just under $90 a barrel. Concerns over a global oil shortage after the strait closed in March have not materialized, helped by lower Chinese imports, alternative shipping routes and inventory drawdowns.

However, the IEA said inventory buffers are rapidly depleting. Global observed oil inventories fell below 7.9 billion barrels in July for the first time since April 2025, while U.S. crude stockpiles dropped below 300 million barrels, their lowest level in more than four decades. The agency said the market is projected to return to surplus toward the end of the year, but risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the Strait has increased. The International Monetary Fund has cut its annual economic growth forecast to 3% from 3.3% since the outbreak of the Iran war in February.