Arabic version: صندوق النقد الدولي يخفض توقعات النمو العالمي بسبب النزاع في إيران

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3 percent, down from the previously predicted 3.1 percent. This adjustment is attributed to the lingering effects of the energy shock caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. The IMF described this change as a “modest slowdown,” which is partly offset by AI-driven demand. According to Al Jazeera, the latest outlook was released on Wednesday.

The IMF anticipates a rebound in growth to 3.4 percent in 2027, just below the average growth rate of 3.5 percent projected for 2024-2025. Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7 percent this year, up from 4.1 percent in 2025, before easing to 3.9 percent in 2027.

This latest downgrade follows renewed U.S. military strikes on Iran, which occurred after attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The IMF’s forecast assumes that the Strait will reopen by mid-July, returning to a “pre-war state” by March. However, maritime traffic in the strait remains heavily constrained, with verified transits dropping from approximately 130 daily crossings before the war to just 41 on Tuesday.

Oil prices have experienced volatility in response to renewed tensions. Following a surge in prices after U.S. strikes, Brent crude rose as much as 7 percent, reaching nearly $79 a barrel. Analysts suggest that the market’s optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fragile, with renewed conflict likely maintaining upward pressure on oil prices in the near term.

In its report, the IMF also highlighted that the U.S. is expected to achieve the fastest growth among major advanced economies this year, with a projected GDP growth of 2.3 percent. In comparison, the Eurozone is expected to grow by 0.9 percent, the United Kingdom by 1 percent, Canada by 1.1 percent, and Japan by 0.6 percent. China, classified as an emerging economy, is forecasted to grow by 4.6 percent.