Massive Israeli air strikes on residential towns in southern and eastern Lebanon killed at least 274 people on Monday, in what has been Lebanon’s bloodiest day for decades.
At least 21 children, 39 women and two emergency responders were among the dead, Lebanon’s health minister said, adding that more than 1,024 others were wounded.
An air strike on southern Beirut targeted Ali Karaki, the head of Hezbollah’s southern command, in the parking of his building, security sources told Middle East Eye. His fate remains unclear.
The attacks on Lebanon and Hezbollah forced tens of thousands to flee north to find safety, with air strikes leaving smoking ruins on the roadside as Lebanese sought safety.
People across the country were contacted by Israel by phone and ordered to leave their homes.
In response to the bombardment, Hezbollah fired rockets at military targets in northern Israel and illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be “complicated” days ahead and that he sought to “change the balance of power”.
Lebanese security sources believe that the situation will likely escalate in the coming days, but the military and other security services do not predict an Israeli ground invasion, despite the massing of troops near the border.
‘Israel knows that if it infiltrates Lebanon, the Lebanese army and Hezbollah will have military superiority on the ground’
– Lebanese security source
“Israel knows that if it infiltrates Lebanon, the Lebanese army and Hezbollah will have military superiority on the ground,” one source told Middle East Eye.
“If the Israeli army carries out a ground invasion, the Lebanese army will participate with Hezbollah in confronting and defending.”
A source close to Hezbollah believes the Israeli attacks are aimed at displacing the population of south Lebanon in retaliation for the way the movement’s attacks on northern Israel have forced evacuations there.
Over the weekend, an Israeli minister called for the “Shia enemy population” of south Lebanon to be expelled and a buffer zone created on the border.
Forced to flee
As Israel targeted locations across the south, including the outskirts of major cities like Tyre, residents of Beirut and southern Lebanon told MEE that they were called on their phones and ordered to move to 1km away from alleged Hezbollah sites.
Some residents also received calls and text messages in Beirut from a Lebanese number ordering them to leave immediately.
Lebanon’s information minister, Ziad Makary, described the orders as “a psychological war”.
More than 80,000 call attempts to Lebanese people telling them to flee their homes were made, according to the head of the telecoms company Ogero.
Avichay Adraee, Israel’s spokesperson for Arabic-speaking media, posted an animated video on X alleging that Lebanese people know there are Hezbollah weapons in their homes. The allegation was made with no evidence and was accompanied by more warnings to flee.
By the afternoon, the roads out of the south were rammed with families trying to move north to apparent safety. Local media reported chaotic scenes in the city of Saida, where roads were blocked as residents scrambled to leave.
Lebanon’s interior ministry said it had opened schools in Beirut, Tripoli and eastern and southern parts of the country as shelters amid “heavy displacement”.
Amal Sabbah fled Nabatieh with her family for shelter just outside Saida.
‘We feel heartbroken. One moment we’re in our home, the next we are leaving it while feeling like we left half our belongings behind’
– Amal Sabbah, Nabatieh
“We feel heartbroken,” she told MEE. “One moment we’re in our home, the next we are leaving it while feeling like we left half our belongings behind.”
One man in Beirut was anxiously waiting for his wife and four children to escape the south.
“I did not want them to leave at first, but the strikes intensified and they hit our neighbourhood. They got in the car and left,” said the man, who did not want to be identified.
“I was not expecting the strikes and barbarism to reach this point. They started hitting homes,” he added.
“I have a childhood friend who had a car mechanic shop near his home. Warplanes bombed his home and his shop, killing him.”
Wave of Israeli attacks
As Israel stepped up its raids on Monday morning, Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defence minister, said: “We are deepening our attacks in Lebanon.” He told the Israeli public they “will have to show composure”.
Israeli troops have not invaded Lebanon since it fought a disastrous month-long war with Hezbollah in 2006, which was widely perceived as a strategic defeat for Israel. Since then, Hezbollah has grown in strength, size and experience.
When asked about a possible ground invasion, Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said: “We will do whatever is needed”.
The source close to Hezbollah told MEE it is clear the Israelis are trying to push the conflict to the widest extent without provoking a war on the scale of 2006.
“It is not yet clear whether the Israelis want to expand the operation towards Beirut because they know that this would make Haifa and Tel Aviv a target,” the source said.
Hezbollah responded to Monday’s attacks by targeting military positions in northern Israel.
The movement, which was born out of resistance to Israel’s 1982-2000 occupation of south Lebanon, says it is not seeking a wide-scale war with Israel and is fighting in solidarity with the Palestinians under attack in Gaza.
The source close to Hezbollah said it will maintain its strategy of responding to Israeli attacks in kind, explaining “its escalation will match Israel’s level of escalation”.
However, he noted, the party has recently shown a degree of flexibility. Hezbollah has long maintained that its current conflict with Israel, which began when Israel’s war on Gaza broke out, will end when Hamas and the Israeli government reach a ceasefire.
More recently, though, Hezbollah has said it is prepared to cease hostilities if attacks in Gaza end without a long-term truce agreed.
The past week has witnessed the largest round of Israeli attacks in the current conflict so far.
On Friday, an Israeli air strike on a densely populated suburb in southern Beirut killed 45 people, including several children and women.
Hezbollah said 16 of its members were killed by the attack, including senior leader Ibrahim Aqil and top commander Ahmed Wahbi.
It came days after two days of Israeli attacks detonating booby-trapped pagers and radios belonging to Hezbollah members.
At least 39 people were killed in those attacks, and over 3,000 wounded.