Arabic version: احتمالات «كالشي» تشير إلى تأخر تعافي حركة الملاحة في المضيق

According to Cnbc, market odds on Kalshi for maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal were below 50% as of Friday afternoon. The chance that traffic flow will be normal by July 2027 fell to 47%, down from nearly 70% over the previous two days.

Odds that ship traffic will resume normally during this year stood at 38%. The probability of regular shipments being reached before April 2027 was 48%, only somewhat higher. Kalshi’s event contract is set to resolve if the seven-day moving average of transit calls exceeds 60, using data verified by IMF Portwatch.

The current seven-day moving average of transit calls was about 12. The decline in the market’s outlook followed the U.S. launching a 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. President Trump also signaled a further “massive attack” against Iran in an Axios interview on Thursday.

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, add a new “dimension” to the reopening timeline, Kpler director of commodity research Matt Smith said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” Smith said, “We’re pushing that reopening into next year.” Trump said in a Truth Social post Thursday that he would hold Iran responsible if the Houthis carry out more attacks. Reuters reported Friday that Pakistan was seeking peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, with additional impetus from China, citing three Pakistani sources.