Arabic version: متداولو كالشِي يتوقعون استمرار التضخم المرتفع في 2026

According to Cnbc, traders on prediction-market platform Kalshi expect inflation to remain elevated through 2026, even as they see limited odds that it will set a new high for the year. Kalshi traders put less than one-in-three odds on inflation reaching fresh 2026 highs.

The market expects the September consumer price index, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, to show a 3.6% increase from a year earlier. That estimate matches the FactSet consensus and would rise from the 3.4% year-over-year advance recorded in August.

Year-over-year inflation previously peaked at 4.2% in May. Kalshi contracts allow traders to assess whether September CPI will exceed specified levels and whether inflation will move above certain levels at any point in 2026. The contracts are resolved using official Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy price changes, is predicted to remain steady at 2.4% year over year, also matching economists’ estimates cited by FactSet. Traders nevertheless expect core inflation to stay elevated for the remainder of 2026.

Kalshi pricing indicates only a 6% chance that core inflation will fall below 2.2% this year. Annual core inflation was last below that level before the inflation spike that began in 2021. CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.