Arabic version: كين يواجه اختبار كأس العالم في سباق الكرة الذهبية
According to BBC News, Harry Kane is the bookmakers’ favourite before Tuesday’s Ballon d’Or shortlist announcement, but the England captain must overcome a long-standing trend favouring players who excel in football’s biggest tournaments. An international jury of specialised journalists, with one representative from each country in the men’s top 100, will vote once the nominees are confirmed.
World Cup years have often shaped the award. Bobby Charlton, Paolo Rossi, Lothar Matthaus, Zinedine Zidane, Ronaldo and Fabio Cannavaro all won the Ballon d’Or after lifting the World Cup. Other winners, including Johan Cruyff in 1974 and Luka Modric in 2018, reached the final. France Football’s retrospective review also concluded that Pele, Garrincha, Diego Maradona and Romario would have deserved World Cup-year awards in editions when eligibility rules excluded many non-European players.
Kane’s individual case is substantial. He scored 73 goals for club and country in 2025-26, with 61 for Bayern Munich and 12 for England. Bayern won the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal, while England finished third at the World Cup. Among players at clubs in Europe’s top five leagues, only Lionel Messi has scored more in one season for club and country, recording 82 in 2011-12.
However, Bayern’s Champions League campaign ended in the semi-finals against eventual winners Paris St-Germain. Rodri, a former Ballon d’Or winner, helped Spain win a second World Cup title and collected the Golden Ball, while Lamine Yamal won the World Cup with Spain after helping Barcelona reclaim La Liga. Kylian Mbappe was the World Cup’s top scorer with 10 goals, and Lionel Messi captained Argentina to a second successive final, scoring eight times at the tournament.
If Kane wins, he would be the fifth English recipient after Sir Stanley Matthews, Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen. He would also be the first player representing a Bundesliga club to take the prize since Matthias Sammer in 1996. Kane has never finished higher than 10th in the voting, leaving journalists to judge whether his goalscoring season outweighs the trophies and World Cup achievements of his rivals.
