Arabic version: لولا يفوز بجولة الإعادة في البرازيل رغم ترجيحات الأسواق

According to Cnbc, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was reelected president of Brazil on Sunday after defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff election. The country’s Superior Electoral Court reported Lula won 51.8% of the vote, compared with 48.2% for Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The result ran counter to prediction-market pricing late in the campaign. Lula remained a significant underdog as late as Sunday afternoon, and his odds of winning on Kalshi stood at 21% shortly after 8:30 p.m. ET Sunday. Following first-round voting on Oct. 4, both Kalshi and Polymarket had given Bolsonaro more than an 80% chance of defeating Lula.

Political polls, unlike the prediction-market odds, showed a close contest in the days before the runoff. Prediction-market platforms do not use the methodologies employed by traditional political polling and are not substitutes for political polls. Kalshi’s contract asked, “Brazil Presidential election winner?” and was verified by reporting from the Associated Press.

Brazil’s Supreme Court extended voting by two hours late Sunday. Bolsonaro argued that the extension damaged his prospects of winning the presidency, and Reuters reported that he is expected to challenge the result. Brazil-linked stocks and exchange-traded funds fell Monday after Lula’s victory: the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF shed 22%, while U.S.-traded shares of Itau Unibanco and Banco Bradesco fell 20% and nearly 30%, respectively. Ambev and Petrobras each declined more than 15%.