07 October, 2024
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NATO faces division over Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russia

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Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has intensified calls for NATO to adopt a more aggressive stance in its ongoing support of Ukraine, urging the Western alliance to remove restrictions on long-range strikes against Russian territory. In a statement that marks a significant escalation in NATO’s approach to the conflict, Frederiksen dismissed concerns about Russia’s potential reaction, claiming that the “most important red line” had already been crossed when Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The Danish prime minister’s comments, made during an interview with Bloomberg TV, underline the growing impatience among some NATO members regarding the alliance’s perceived hesitancy in providing military aid to Ukraine. As Kyiv continues to press its Western backers for more advanced weaponry, Frederiksen’s suggestion that NATO should ignore potential Russian retaliation underscores a deepening divide over how far the bloc should go in its military assistance to Ukraine.

Frederiksen’s remarks come at a time of intense debate within NATO about the nature and limits of support for Ukraine. In recent months, the alliance has supplied significant military aid, including advanced weapon systems such as HIMARS rocket systems, Patriot missile defense systems, and drones. However, concerns have persisted over providing Ukraine with long-range missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory, a move that many fear could provoke a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.

Frederiksen dismissed these concerns as misguided, arguing that public discussions about red lines and potential escalation only play into Russia’s hands. “The most important red line has been crossed already. And that was when the Russians entered Ukraine,” Frederiksen stated, firmly positioning herself against any hesitation in confronting Russia militarily. She added, “I will not accept this premise, and I will never allow anyone from Russia to decide what is the right thing to do in NATO, in Europe, or in Ukraine.”

Her comments reflect a growing frustration with what she described as Western indecisiveness regarding military assistance. Frederiksen argued that by engaging in debates over what level of support is acceptable, NATO members are effectively giving Russia a strategic advantage. “My suggestion is, let us end the discussion about red lines,” she urged. “It has been a mistake during this war to have a public discussion about red lines, as that is simply giving the Russians too good a card in their hands.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet US President Joe Biden this week, where he will reportedly present a “victory plan” that includes long-range missile strikes into Russian territory. Zelensky has been lobbying Washington and other NATO allies to permit the use of advanced Western-supplied weapons to target critical infrastructure and military assets within Russia. Kyiv believes that such strikes are essential for weakening Russia’s warfighting capability and shortening the duration of the conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that allowing Ukraine to carry out such strikes using NATO-supplied weapons would be seen as an act of war by the US-led alliance. Moscow has stated that it would respond harshly to any attacks on its territory, though it has been deliberately vague about what form that response would take. Some analysts have speculated that Russia could escalate by targeting NATO infrastructure or even by supplying advanced weaponry to anti-Western actors in other parts of the world, potentially fueling conflicts elsewhere.

Putin has also suggested that strikes on Russian soil could trigger a nuclear response, given Russia’s military doctrine, which permits the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an existential threat to the state. This possibility has caused some NATO members to hesitate, with countries like Belgium explicitly banning Ukraine from using donated weapons to strike Russian territory.

Denmark, a founding member of NATO, has been one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine since the conflict began. The country is part of the so-called “F-16 coalition,” a group of NATO nations working to provide Kyiv with US-made F-16 fighter jets and to train Ukrainian pilots to fly them. Frederiksen’s government has not imposed any restrictions on how Ukraine can use the jets once they are delivered, setting Denmark apart from some other NATO members that have imposed limitations on the use of donated weaponry.

Denmark’s stance on long-range strikes is particularly significant because it reflects a broader shift within NATO toward providing more offensive military aid to Ukraine. While earlier phases of the conflict saw the West focused primarily on helping Ukraine defend its territory, there is now growing momentum for giving Kyiv the tools it needs to take the fight to Russian soil.

Frederiksen’s comments also reveal a clear desire among some NATO members to accelerate the war’s conclusion by tipping the military balance decisively in Ukraine’s favor. However, this strategy carries significant risks, not least the possibility of a dramatic escalation by Russia, including the use of nuclear weapons or widening the conflict to other regions.

Despite Frederiksen’s strong words, not all NATO members are as enthusiastic about expanding the scope of their support for Ukraine. Many fear that long-range strikes into Russia could provoke a dangerous and uncontrollable escalation of the conflict. The US, in particular, has been cautious in its approach, balancing the need to support Ukraine with the risk of provoking a direct confrontation with Russia.

The Biden administration has provided significant military aid to Ukraine, but it has been wary of authorizing strikes that could be seen as crossing a line into direct NATO involvement in the war. As Zelensky prepares to present his “victory plan” in Washington, the US will have to carefully weigh the risks and benefits of allowing Ukraine to target Russia directly.

Frederiksen’s call to end the discussion about red lines reflects a broader debate within NATO about how far the alliance should go in its support for Ukraine. While some, like Denmark, are pushing for a more aggressive stance, others remain cautious, mindful of the potential consequences of provoking Russia further.

As the Ukraine conflict drags on, the debate over NATO’s role in the war is likely to intensify. While nations like Denmark are calling for a more aggressive approach, others remain wary of the risks of escalation. Whether NATO will heed Frederiksen’s call to ignore red lines and give Ukraine carte blanche to strike Russian territory remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: the decisions made in the coming months will have profound implications not only for the future of the Ukraine conflict but for global security as a whole.

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