Arabic version: أسواق التنبؤ تسعّر مخاطر صفقة وارنر براذرز

According to Cnbc, prediction-market traders continue to view Paramount Skydance as likely to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, though legal action by 12 state attorneys general has raised expectations that the transaction could fail. On Kalshi, traders put the likelihood of Paramount acquiring Warner Bros. by July 2027 at 74%, while contracts implying the deal does not go through stood at 22%.

The figures have shifted during the proposed acquisition’s regulatory dispute. Before California and 11 other states filed their lawsuit to block the merger on July 13, Kalshi odds of a successful Paramount acquisition were above 80%. The likelihood later fell as low as 66% on July 24, when Paramount said it would delay the acquisition to 2027.

Kalshi’s market asks who will successfully take over Warner Bros. before July 2027, with contracts resolved using news reports, official press releases or government filings. Polymarket showed similar expectations: it placed the odds that no acquisition succeeds by June 30, 2027, at 23%. Its contracts are resolved through a consensus of reporting.

The merger’s termination date is March 4, 2027, automatically extending to June 4, 2027 if only regulatory obstacles remain. A federal judge set a March 2027 trial date for the states’ lawsuit. Paramount previously said it would not complete the acquisition until the court rules on the states’ claims or June 1, 2027, whichever comes first. If the deal does not close by Sept. 30, Paramount must pay Warner Bros. shareholders 25 cents per share each quarter until the transaction is completed.

Last week, the Directors Guild of America and the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees wrote to California Attorney General Rob Bonta and Paramount CEO David Ellison. The groups called for negotiations on a solution or for an earlier trial start, citing the need to avoid prolonged uncertainty.