Arabic version: أسواق التنبؤ تتوقع انتعاش التوظيف في أغسطس

According to Cnbc, prediction-market traders expect U.S. job creation to rebound in August after the economy lost jobs in July, though their outlook is slightly below the consensus among economists. Traders on Kalshi put the odds at 50-50 that the economy added more than 50,000 jobs last month.

The Dow Jones consensus estimate calls for 53,000 jobs created in August. Polymarket traders assigned a 48% likelihood that the economy produced more than 50,000 jobs. On these platforms, contracts ask participants whether the United States added more than a specified number of jobs during the month and are resolved using official Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Both economists and event-contract traders have overestimated payroll gains in each of the previous two months. In June, both groups expected job creation in the six figures, but payrolls came in just below 60,000. They also expected the economy to create jobs in July, when it instead lost them.

Kalshi traders see a broad range of possible August outcomes. Speculators assigned roughly one-in-four odds to a contract implying that the U.S. lost jobs last month, while a separate contract asking whether the country created more than 80,000 jobs carried a similar likelihood. The August employment report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.