Arabic version: أسواق التنبؤ تتوقع إشارات محدودة من وورش في جاكسون هول
According to Cnbc, prediction-market traders see low odds that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will discuss bond-market conditions or provide clear guidance on the Fed’s September decision during his Jackson Hole Symposium keynote in Wyoming early Friday.
As of Thursday afternoon, Kalshi traders assigned a 16% chance that Warsh would say “bond market” and an 8% chance that he would mention the “yield curve.” Those terms could relate to Treasury-yield highs last week or to the Treasury Department’s decision to double buybacks of long-term government debt to at least $4 billion from $2 billion.
The 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5.3% last week, its highest level since June 2007. The following day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the department would increase buybacks of long-term Treasury debt. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said that further front-loading of T-bill issuance was complicating the Fed’s job.
Warsh’s central objective as chairman is to contain inflation at the Fed’s 2% target. Kalshi odds put the chance that he will say “inflation” at nearly 90%, while the likelihood of a reference to “task force” stood above 70%. The Fed announced task forces in June to track how the agency sets monetary policy.
A CNBC Survey found that 45% of respondents did not expect Warsh to expand on the rate outlook in his speech. Kalshi traders gave just an 8% chance that he would say “rate cut.” David Mericle, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist, said he did not expect Warsh to provide strong hints about the September decision. A smaller market projected a 67% chance that the S&P 500 would move 0.5% after the speech.
