Arabic version: أسواق التنبؤ تتوقع قراءة أكثر اعتدالاً لتضخم يوليو

According to Cnbc, prediction-market traders expect July’s consumer price index report to show a relatively tame inflation reading, below the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Kalshi odds indicated less than a 55% likelihood that the year-over-year CPI rate would exceed 3.3%, while traders placed a 15% chance on a reading above 3.4%.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect headline inflation to rise 3.4% over the prior 12 months in July. That would be slightly cooler than June’s 3.5% annual rate. The Kalshi event contract asking for July’s year-over-year CPI rate will be verified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Traders also signaled expectations for softer core inflation. In a separate Kalshi contract, participants assigned a 47% probability that core inflation would come in above 2.4% and an 11% probability that it would exceed 2.5%. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices.

The Dow Jones consensus calls for a 2.5% year-over-year increase in July core inflation, compared with 2.6% in June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to issue the CPI report on Wednesday morning. The report is significant for the Federal Reserve as policymakers consider how to proceed on interest rates at their next meeting in September.

June’s annual CPI reading of 3.5% was below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.8%. CPI fell 0.4% from the prior month, its largest monthly decline in more than six years, helped by a temporary drop in energy prices. The CPI measures the average change over time in consumer prices for goods and services.