Arabic version: بحث يدعم محدودية أثر تغيير خصم التأمين

According to SBS News, the federal government proposes ending the higher private health insurance rebate for Australians aged 65 and over from April 2027, making rebates equal for people with the same income regardless of age.

The current rebate depends on income and age, with people aged 65 and over receiving a larger premium rebate than younger people on the same income. The rebate rises further for those aged 70 and over. The government says removing the age-based bonus would address a subsidy it considers inequitable and poorly targeted.

Government modelling estimates that about 99 per cent of affected policyholders would retain their cover, while about 44,000 would drop it. New research based on a decade of tax data estimated that between 14,821 and 42,498 older Australians would leave private cover. The researchers estimated annual government savings of roughly $730 million to $940 million by 2028–29.

Private Healthcare Australia, the insurers’ peak body, has said the government estimate is a “significant underestimate”. Its polling of more than 1,500 people found that 39 per cent of insured older Australians said they would be more likely to drop their cover, which would equate to about one million people based on the number of privately insured Australians aged 65 and over.

The research said polling on hypothetical intentions may not predict actual behaviour. It also found that lower-income households are the most likely to reconsider cover, matching government modelling that places about 95 per cent of the projected decline in the lowest income tier. Health ministers in New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania have raised concerns about public hospitals, though earlier research found private insurance changes have only small effects on public hospital wait times.