Arabic version: اقتصاد روسيا في زمن الحرب يُظهر ضغوطًا متفاقمة

According to Cnbc, Russia’s wartime economy is still expanding, but analysts say headline growth conceals mounting pressure on households, public finances and the non-military economy after four-and-a-half years of full-scale war with Ukraine. Alex Kolyandr, director for Europe at Eurasia Group, described a two-tier economy in which workers tied to tank production fare better while others face problems.

Official data showed gross domestic product grew 1.3% year-on-year in the second quarter and 0.6% in the first half of 2026, exceeding government and central bank forecasts. Government spending on the industrial-military complex and a recent rise in oil and gas prices have supported activity. Analysts nevertheless pointed to the Kremlin’s reliance on military spending, higher taxes and subsidized bank lending.

Charles Lichfield of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center said the deficit and inflation were the key measures to watch. He said Russia was on course to double its 2025 deficit, which was already double the 2024 level. Oil and gas revenues in the first half of 2026 were 64% of their level in the same period two years earlier, while Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and tougher Western sanctions added pressure.

Consumers are also showing signs of strain. X5 Group President Yekaterina Lobacheva said in April that cookie consumption had risen almost two-and-a-half times as shoppers increasingly chose lower-cost and store-brand food products. Kolyandr and other analysts said economic stress alone was unlikely to end the war. Kolyandr warned that worsening conditions could instead encourage President Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict, while Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said the situation would need to become much more dire to change Russia’s course.