Arabic version: ارتفاع توقعات رفع الفائدة في سبتمبر مع قفزة أسعار النفط

According to Cnbc, investors are increasingly preparing for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September as oil prices climb. Fed funds futures were pricing a roughly 82% likelihood that the central bank will lift borrowing costs at its September policy meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, up from below 53% a week earlier.

The Fed is still broadly expected to leave its current 3.50% to 3.75% rate range unchanged at its meeting next week. However, futures trading showed a nearly 38% probability of a quarter-point increase at that gathering, compared with less than 12% a week ago. Kalshi traders also lifted bets on a September quarter-point increase to 48% by midday Thursday, from about 30% a week earlier.

Brent crude reached $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since late May following a new round of tit-for-tat attacks between the United States and Iran. AAA said the average U.S. gasoline price reached $4 per gallon this week, its highest level in more than a month. Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 in the week ended July 18, the Labor Department reported, the fewest since 1969.

Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, said the jobless-claims figures pointed to possible overheating in economic growth, while questioning how long that could last if energy prices keep rising. Stock markets fell Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 600 points in midday trading and the Nasdaq Composite off nearly 3%. Larry Tentarelli of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report cited pressure from rate expectations, higher oil prices and Treasury yields, and Alphabet’s post-earnings decline. Economists’ consensus forecast, according to FactSet, remains that the Fed will not raise rates this year; for 2027, economists expect a half-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs.