Arabic version: استطلاع يحث وورش على توضيح آرائه الاقتصادية

According to Cnbc, 80% of 31 respondents to a special Jackson Hole edition of the CNBC Fed Survey said Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh should provide more insight into his economic views. Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first keynote speech at the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday.

The respondents, including economists, strategists and investors, were split 48% to 48% on whether Warsh should share his views on the rate outlook. Since taking office, Warsh has offered limited views on the economy and policy outlook, saying he wants a clearer picture of market pricing without Federal Reserve guidance. A plurality, 45%, expected him to offer no rate-outlook guidance in Friday’s speech; 32% expected him to be somewhat hawkish and 19% expected a neutral stance.

Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Nationwide, said Warsh’s address would be important given higher long-term interest rates and uncertainty about inflation and the Fed’s reaction function. Constance Hunter, chief economist and head of research at Economist Enterprise, said that by avoiding forward guidance, Warsh had shifted communication about the reaction function to meeting minutes and other Federal Open Market Committee members’ speeches.

The survey also found 77% believed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s effort to reduce Treasury yields would not succeed. Treasury had announced a surprise increase in purchases of long-dated off-the-run securities. Respondents forecast the 10-year yield would remain between 4.60% and 4.70% through the end of next year. Over the next year, 53% expected rate hikes, 30% forecast rate cuts and 16% expected no change. The survey forecast inflation at 2.6% next year, down from 3.4% this year, unemployment around 4.3% through 2027, and GDP just above 2%.