Arabic version: توقعات نمو الاقتصاد البريطاني تم تعديلها في بيان الربيع 2026

Rachel Reeves addressed MPs in a Spring Statement that lacked significant tax or spending announcements. According to BBC News, the statement coincided with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) releasing updated forecasts for the UK economy.

The OBR has downgraded the predicted economic growth for this year to 1.1%, down from 1.4% in November’s Budget. However, forecasts for growth in 2027 and 2028 have been upgraded from 1.5% to 1.6%, while the outlook for 2029 remains unchanged at 1.5%. Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3% this year, compared to a previous estimate of 4.9%.

Inflation is projected to average 2.3% this year, with expectations to reach the government’s target of 2% by 2027. Reeves acknowledged that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has contributed to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Reeves also noted an increase in ‘headroom’ against her fiscal rules, with the figure rising from £21.7 billion to £23.6 billion. Additionally, the headroom for reducing government debt as a share of national income has increased to £27.1 billion. Housing forecasts indicate that average mortgage rates are set to rise from 4.1% this year to 4.5% by 2030, while housebuilding is projected to decline from an average of 260,000 a year in the early 2020s to 220,000 in 2026/27, before rebounding to 305,000 a year by 2030/31.

Recent changes to tax policies, including the reduction of taxes on inherited farmland and adjustments to business rates for pubs and music venues, are expected to cost the Treasury an additional £200 million annually. These developments reflect the ongoing adjustments in the UK’s economic strategy as it navigates a complex financial landscape.