Arabic version: اتساع الصراع الأميركي الإيراني إلى ما وراء جبهات فبراير
According to Al Jazeera, Iran says seven oil tankers have caught fire or sustained damage in and around the Strait of Hormuz, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that renewed US attacks could prompt a wider response. Analysts consider a US attack before the November 3 midterm elections unlikely, but escalating rhetoric has heightened concern over renewed hostilities.
The conflict’s geography has changed sharply since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies moved before the war, was not a central issue beforehand, when talks on Iran’s nuclear programme were under way. Iran now threatens and attacks shipping in the waterway, while the US maintains a blockade of Iranian ports, severely disrupting traffic and reducing oil and gas supplies.
Other fronts have also widened. Hezbollah retaliation following the killing of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei brought Lebanon into the war in early March. Israel launched attacks on southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs and still occupies significant land on Lebanon’s southern border. In Yemen, fighting involving Saudi-backed government forces and the Iran-backed Houthis has expanded to Saudi Arabia, with missile and drone attacks targeting airports and oil infrastructure.
Economic and political pressures have intensified. Iran estimated in April that direct and indirect damage from US-Israeli attacks totalled $270bn, while official figures showed gross domestic product contracted 10.1 percent year-on-year from March 21 to June 20. In the United States, the Congressional Budget Office estimated in September that the conflict had cost the Department of Defense $38bn as of August 1, with continued operations expected to cost about $2bn to $3bn monthly.
Energy disruption has raised the wider stakes. Brent crude settled at $72.48 a barrel on February 27, reached $126.41 on April 30 and stood at $114.47 in early Friday trading. The International Energy Agency warned in October that supply constraints could persist well into 2027. Re-establishing shipping through key Middle Eastern waterways has consequently become a primary objective in the conflict.
