Arabic version: الصراع الأمريكي الإسرائيلي يمر بمئة يوم مع آثار عالمية شديدة

The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has reached its 100-day mark, significantly affecting regional stability and global economics. According to Al Jazeera, despite a ceasefire agreed on April 8, sporadic fighting persists, particularly in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which remains largely closed.

The war has resulted in at least 7,000 fatalities, with casualties reported in Iran, Lebanon, and Gulf states. Notably, Lebanon has seen more deaths than Iran, with approximately 3,593 people confirmed killed in Lebanon and 3,468 in Iran. The conflict has also displaced millions, with more than three million Iranians and over one million Lebanese forced to flee their homes due to the violence.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has been severely impacted. Ship-tracking data indicates that daily ship crossings have plummeted from around 100 to just seven, causing a significant disruption in oil supply. This closure has led to a record pace of depletion in global oil stockpiles, further exacerbating the economic fallout.

Oil prices have surged nearly 100% since the war began, with Brent crude oil prices peaking at nearly $120 per barrel. The International Energy Agency has described this as the largest energy shock on record, affecting at least 146 countries that have reported increases in petrol prices. Countries heavily reliant on oil imports, particularly in Asia and Africa, are facing the steepest price hikes, with some experiencing increases of over 90%.

The economic ramifications extend beyond fuel prices, as rising costs of energy and raw materials are impacting various industries, including food production. Experts warn that the long-term effects of the conflict could contribute to a recession, with global GDP contraction and increased inflation already evident. As the situation continues to evolve, the full impact of the war on global supply chains remains uncertain.