Arabic version: وارش يواجه تصويتاً حاسماً في الاحتياطي الفيدرالي بشأن رفع متوقع للفائدة

According to Cnbc, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh faces a difficult vote as policymakers meet Tuesday and Wednesday to decide the immediate and future path of interest rates. Markets were pricing in a better than 92% probability of a quarter-percentage-point increase this week, while the federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%.

The meeting follows a 9-3 vote to hold rates in July. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari supported a quarter-point hike then. If their positions are unchanged, four other voters would need to shift from holding rates to backing an increase.

The policy debate has centered on whether recent inflation pressure will fade or become more entrenched. August headline consumer price inflation ran at 3.4%, while the core rate, excluding food and soaring energy costs, was 2.4%, down 0.1 percentage point from July. The source said inflation this year has been driven in large part by tariffs and an energy supply shock from the Iran war.

Governor Christopher Waller supported another hold in remarks on Sept. 3, urging patience while data are assessed. New York Fed President John Williams also said a wait-and-see approach appeared sensible. Governor Michael Barr said he was concerned temporary inflation could take deeper hold and was open to a hike, while not set on one.

Investors will also watch the Fed’s updated dot plot, which gives anonymous rate expectations from all 19 meeting participants. The update will offer forecasts for the rest of this year, 2027 and, for the first time, 2029. A close vote would increase attention on Warsh’s Wednesday news conference and how he describes the committee’s outlook.