Arabic version: حزب «أمة واحدة» يترقب مفاجأة في الانتخابات الفرعية بسكريت هاربور

According to The Guardian, the 29 August byelection in Western Australia’s Secret Harbour could test One Nation’s ability to challenge Labor in one of the party’s traditional strongholds. The contest was triggered by the resignation of Labor minister Paul Papalia, who had represented the seat and predecessor electorates since 2007.

Secret Harbour, on Perth’s southern coastal outskirts, has historically favoured Labor, with its two-party preferred vote averaging about 60%. But Labor suffered a 28.5% swing against its primary vote in the 2025 state election. Premier Roger Cook has said it was “absolutely” possible that Labor would not retain the seat.

One Nation received 8.4% of the primary vote in Secret Harbour at the 2025 election, yet is considered competitive in the byelection. The electorate has high mortgage and rental stress, while analyst William Bowe said its “low ethnic diversity and abundance of trades workers make it promising territory for One Nation”. Reports have also indicated that WA Labor’s internal polling shows the party is competitive.

The Liberals are also contesting the seat and recorded a 9.8% swing in their first-preference vote there in 2025. A 16-candidate field includes a regionalist party, several single-issue parties and six independents. Of six official how-to-vote cards registered with the WA Electoral Commission, only Labor recommends that voters place One Nation below both major parties.

Labor has announced spending and policy initiatives for the electorate, with reports saying it is spending $300,000 on the local campaign. The party would struggle to hold the seat if its primary vote falls 5% below its 2025 result of 46.6%, even if the Greens vote holds. The result may carry wider symbolic and practical implications as support for major parties declines and One Nation rises nationally.