Arabic version: محور المقاومة الإيراني يواجه تحولًا استراتيجيًا بعد النزاع
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the United States and Iran has halted more than three months of direct warfare. The agreement, which includes lifting a US naval blockade and establishing a $300bn reconstruction fund for Iran, has fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape. According to Al Jazeera, this shift has placed considerable pressure on Iran’s “axis of resistance,” a network of pro-Iranian forces including Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Experts have begun to analyze the implications of this prolonged conflict for Iran’s proxy network. Iran has traditionally relied on its regional allies as part of a “forward defense” strategy to keep conflicts away from its borders. However, during the recent conflict, Iran opted to primarily utilize its own military assets, such as missiles and drones, indicating a shift in strategy. The limited engagement of allies like the Houthis during this period raises questions about the future effectiveness of Iran’s regional deterrence.
Nader Hashemi, a professor at Georgetown University, noted that the conflict has exposed weaknesses in Iran’s regional doctrine, suggesting that the axis is currently at its weakest since its inception. Conversely, Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, posits that this situation has prompted a necessary adaptation in Iran’s strategy, shifting towards a focus on homeland-based deterrence while still valuing regional partnerships.
Looking ahead, the MOU promises to unfreeze Iranian assets and establish an international reconstruction fund – and while there will likely be attempts at restricting what Iran can do with the money – questions mount over whether Tehran will focus on domestic recovery or funnel resources to rebuild the capabilities of its battered proxies. The balance between investing in national defense and supporting allied groups will be crucial as Iran navigates its post-conflict landscape. The evolving nature of Iran’s axis of resistance suggests a potential decentralization of its military network, allowing allied groups to operate more independently while still aligning strategically against U.S. and Israeli interests.
