Arabic version: الناتو يواجه أزمة محتملة مع تساؤلات ترامب حول التزام الولايات المتحدة

The future of NATO is under scrutiny as President Donald Trump’s disdain for NATO allies escalates. Analysts warn that the recent refusal of NATO allies to support Trump’s military actions against Iran has intensified existing fractures within the transatlantic partnership. According to Al Jazeera, Trump’s remarks labeling the lack of support as a “stain on the alliance” signal a deepening crisis.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany described the situation as a “trans-Atlantic stress test,” highlighting the urgency of the question: can NATO endure if the US withdraws its support? Experts suggest that the alliance is at a critical juncture, with Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, declaring, “We are closer to a break than we have ever been.”

While Trump can’t pull the US out of the alliance on a whim, he has other means to undermine the alliance’s credibility. The US’s Article 5 commitment to collective defense does not guarantee automatic military intervention, leading to doubts among allies about American support in times of crisis. Furthermore, Trump is considering relocating some of the 84,000 US troops stationed in Europe, potentially damaging NATO’s operational capabilities.

European nations are responding to these challenges by increasing their defense spending, with a reported 62 percent rise in expenditure between 2020 and 2025. However, experts warn that Europe still heavily relies on US military capabilities in critical areas such as intelligence and logistics. The International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) notes that it could take over a decade and approximately $1 trillion to replace essential US military functions.

Some analysts, like Minna Alander from the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, believe that NATO can survive even without US involvement, as European nations have a vested interest in maintaining the alliance. However, the looming threat from Russia, with estimates suggesting a potential military challenge by 2027 or 2029, adds urgency to the need for a cohesive European defense strategy.