Arabic version: النزاع الجمركي بين الولايات المتحدة وكندا يعمّق الضغوط الاقتصادية
According to BBC News, the United States and Canada appear no closer to resolving their trade dispute, which has brought tariffs and counter-tariffs across major sectors. The US has imposed levies on Canadian steel, aluminium, lumber and automobiles, alongside an additional 50% levy on about C$28bn of Canadian goods that took effect on 22 August. Canada has responded with what it calls “dollar-for-dollar” and “strategic” retaliation on C$28bn worth of US goods.
Ontario has been the Canadian province most exposed to US auto and steel tariffs because of its large manufacturing sector. Auto parts and assembly plants have announced layoffs and production cuts, while the province is estimated to have lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs since early 2025. Quebec’s metal exports fell 36% between February 2025 and 2026, with sector employment down 3.6%, according to data released in July. The Royal Bank of Canada identified Ontario and Quebec as the provinces most affected by US sectoral tariffs.
Canada’s counter-tariffs are expected to weigh most heavily on Ohio, where C$3.2bn, or 12%, of exports will soon face Canadian tariffs, Statistics Canada data indicates. Illinois and Pennsylvania follow. Scotiabank economist Derek Holt said the measures appeared “very deliberately oriented” towards swing states that could influence the balance of power in upcoming US midterm elections. Ohio’s exposure includes steel and laundry machines, while Illinois faces tariffs on farm and construction equipment.
Canada’s average effective US tariff rate has risen from 2.9% in June to 5.7%, nearly doubling and moving above Mexico’s rate, according to the Royal Bank of Canada. Canada remains heavily dependent on its southern neighbour, which buys more than 70% of Canadian exports, but firms are increasingly seeking customers elsewhere. The Bank of Canada says exports to non-US markets have increased since January 2025. Still, job risks remain: about 55,000 Canadian manufacturing jobs were lost between January 2025 and January 2026, and economist Trevor Tombe estimates 90,000 jobs could be lost if the latest US tariffs persist.
