Arabic version: نصح موظفو البيت الأبيض بعدم المراهنة على أسواق التنبؤ
White House staff were warned last month not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets. The email was sent on 24 March, a day after US President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on his threat to attack Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. It referred to press reports that raised concerns over government officials using non-public information to place bets on platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket. According to BBC News, White House spokesman Davis Ingle told the BBC that “any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Ingle also said that all federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of insider information for financial gain. He reiterated that the only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people. The Wall Street Journal first reported the email on Thursday.
Concerns over prediction markets have been heightened in recent months. Polymarket came under scrutiny in January after a gambler made nearly half a million dollars on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro just before it was officially announced, raising questions about insider knowledge.
Prediction markets have surged in popularity, hosting trades exceeding $44 billion. These markets allow users to place bets on a wide array of topics, including sports, economic policies, and election outcomes. However, the rise of betting related to conflicts has sparked debates about the need for regulatory oversight. Recently, Congressman Ritchie Torres urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate “suspicious” trades within these markets.
In March, Democratic leaders introduced legislation that would completely ban prediction market betting related to war or military action. Senator Andy Kim from New Jersey criticized the current system, stating that it allows for corruption and exploitation, benefiting a few at the expense of working Americans.
